A ten-year cardiovascular risk estimate answers one narrow question: out of 100 people with your numbers, roughly how many would be expected to have a heart attack, stroke or other cardiovascular event in the next decade. It is a useful number because it turns several separate readings into one figure you can act on — and a limited one, because it is a population average applied to an individual.
In short: the calculator below uses the Framingham General CVD model and needs six things: age, sex, total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and whether you smoke, have diabetes or take blood pressure medication. It is for adults aged 30-79 who have not already had a heart attack, stroke or vascular procedure. Cholesterol can be entered in mmol/L or mg/dL.
10-year cardiovascular risk calculator
Everything runs in your browser and nothing you enter is stored or sent anywhere. If you do not know your cholesterol figures, they come from an ordinary blood test — the estimate is not meaningful without them.
Two of the six inputs have their own interpreters, if you want to understand them before entering them here: what your blood pressure reading means under both the European and American systems, and how to read a lipid panel — including the non-HDL figure most reports omit.
What the number actually says
A result of 12 in 100 does not mean you have a 12 in 100 chance personally. It means that among a large group of people sharing your age, sex, cholesterol, blood pressure, smoking and diabetes status, roughly 12 in 100 had an event within ten years in the cohort the model was built on. Whether you are one of them depends on things the model never saw.
That is why the figure is a starting point for a conversation rather than a verdict. Its real value is comparative: entering your figures, then entering what they would be if you stopped smoking or brought your blood pressure down, shows how much of the risk is modifiable. In most people a surprising amount of it is.
The risk bands, and what usually follows
| Estimated 10-year risk | Band | What this usually means in practice |
|---|---|---|
| Under 10 in 100 | Low | Lifestyle measures and periodic review. Medication is not usually started on the number alone. |
| 10 to 20 in 100 | Intermediate | The band where decisions are least automatic. Family history, kidney function, weight and other factors tip the balance, which is why it is discussed rather than calculated. |
| 20 in 100 or above | High | The band in which treatment is usually discussed — and the band that responds most to change, because the factors that raised it can lower it. |
What the model does not include
This is the most important section on the page, because the omissions are what make the number an estimate rather than a measurement:
- Family history of early heart disease — a substantial factor, entirely absent from the model.
- Weight, physical activity and diet, which act partly through blood pressure and cholesterol but not only through them.
- Kidney function, inflammatory conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, and HIV — all independently associated with higher risk.
- Ethnicity and social circumstances, both of which shift risk and neither of which appears here.
- Lipoprotein(a) and other markers increasingly used where family history is strong.
- Anything already found on a scan — plaque in the carotid artery or a reduced ankle pressure changes the picture far more than a calculated figure does.
This calculator does not apply to you if you have already had a heart attack, stroke, transient ischaemic attack, stent, bypass or other vascular procedure, or if you have been diagnosed with peripheral artery disease or an aortic aneurysm. Those place you in a higher-risk category managed on its own terms, and a figure produced here would be misleadingly low. The same applies to familial hypercholesterolaemia, where risk assessment follows a different route.
Why European practice often uses a different model
The Framingham model was derived from a largely white US cohort followed from the mid-twentieth century onwards. Applied elsewhere it tends to overestimate risk in lower-risk European populations, which is why European guidance now generally uses SCORE2 — recalibrated by region, and estimating fatal and non-fatal events in a different way.
That does not make the figure here useless. The ranking it produces — who is at higher risk and which factors are driving it — is far more robust than the absolute number, and the direction of travel when you change an input is the part worth paying attention to. But if a doctor quotes you a different figure using a different tool, that is expected rather than contradictory.
What moves the number most
The factors you can change
- Stopping smoking. In the model it is a single term, but in life it is the single largest modifiable contributor, and the benefit begins within the first year.
- Blood pressure. Consistent, measured control — including knowing what your readings actually are over several days rather than at one appointment.
- Cholesterol. Both the total figure and HDL enter the calculation, and they move in opposite directions.
- Diabetes control, which affects both the large arteries and the small ones.
- Weight and activity, which act on all of the above at once.
What a scan adds that a calculator cannot
A risk score estimates probability from population data. An ultrasound looks at your actual arteries. Where risk factors are present but no symptoms have appeared, a structured vascular check-up finds narrowing or dilatation while it is still silent — and a finding there outweighs any calculated percentage. The same disease process runs through the carotid arteries, the aorta and the leg arteries, which is why one positive finding changes the assessment of the others.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which model does this calculator use?
The Framingham General Cardiovascular Disease risk model published by D’Agostino and colleagues in Circulation in 2008. It estimates ten-year risk of coronary disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease and heart failure combined, using age, sex, total and HDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, blood pressure treatment, smoking and diabetes.
Can I enter my cholesterol in mmol/L?
Yes. Choose the unit above the fields — mmol/L is standard in the UK, Europe and most of the world, mg/dL in the US and Türkiye. The tool converts internally and will tell you if a value looks like it was entered in the other unit.
Who should not use it?
Anyone who has already had a heart attack, stroke, TIA or a vascular procedure, anyone diagnosed with peripheral artery disease or an aortic aneurysm, and anyone with familial hypercholesterolaemia. Those situations are already high-risk and are managed without a calculated estimate. It is also not validated below 30 or above 79.
My doctor gave me a different number — who is right?
Probably both. Different tools — Framingham, SCORE2, ASCVD — were built on different populations and define events differently, so they give different figures for the same person. What they agree on is the ranking and the direction, which is what decisions are based on.
Does a low result mean I am safe?
No. It means the probability estimated from these six variables is low. It does not account for family history, kidney function, weight, activity or anything visible on a scan, and most events occur in people who were not in the highest band — simply because there are far more of them.
How often should the number be recalculated?
Every few years is reasonable while the inputs are stable, and sooner if something changes: a new diagnosis of diabetes or hypertension, starting or stopping smoking, or a significant change in cholesterol. The useful comparison is with your own previous figure.
Is the result stored anywhere?
No. The calculation runs entirely in your browser; nothing is transmitted, logged or saved, and closing the page discards it.
Do you see international patients?
Yes. International and Gulf patients are seen in Istanbul with English- and Arabic-speaking support, and an initial remote assessment can be made from your existing reports and scan images before you travel.
References
- D'Agostino RB et al. — General Cardiovascular Risk Profile for Use in Primary Care: The Framingham Heart Study (Circulation, 2008)
- Framingham Heart Study — Cardiovascular disease 10-year risk functions
- NHS — Cardiovascular disease
- National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute — Understand your risks
Related Pages
- Vascular check-up: what is actually looked at
- Stroke: BE-FAST signs and prevention
- Carotid artery disease
- Peripheral artery disease (leg)
- Aortic aneurysm
- What should your pulse rate be?
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This content is for information only and does not replace diagnosis or treatment. Assessment is made by a medical examination.
